Coronavirus: Which Bay Area counties are closest to reopening?

California’s COVID-19 metrics continued to improve Tuesday, and in the Bay Area, several counties came close to making their first progress in months in the state’s reopening tiers.

County health departments reported 11,236 new cases and 388 deaths from COVID-19 on Tuesday, according to data compiled by this news organization. At approximately 8,100 and 359 per day, the state’s respective daily averages of cases and deaths have fallen by 53%  and 31% in the past two weeks. Fewer than 4% of all tests came back positive for COVID-19 in the past week, after California’s positivity rate had climbed above 14% last month.

Tuesday afternoon, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced only a single county’s movement in the state’s four-tiered reopening system but suggested there would be “substantial” changes next week. Few places in California are closer to ending their long runs in the purple tier than a cluster of locales in the Bay Area. A total of six sparsely populated counties have already moved to red or orange; of the next eight closest to advancing, six are in the Bay Area, led by San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties.

The adjusted case rate in San Francisco and Marin County fell to 8.9 per 100,000 residents, according to the state’s metrics released Tuesday, which account for high rates of testing in addition to the per-capita infection rate. In San Mateo County, it sunk to 9.6/100K.

For a county to exit purple and enter the red tier, its adjusted case rate must be below 7/100K, and its weekly positivity rate cannot be higher than 8%. Every county in the Bay Area already meets the red tier’s positivity rate threshold.

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Here’s an overview of the most recent numbers released by CDPH (adjusted case rate, positivity rate):

Alameda: 12.6, 3.6%
Contra Costa: 16.4, 4.6%
Marin: 8.9, 2.4%
Napa: 14.2, 4.6%
San Francisco: 8.9, 2.6%
San Mateo: 9.6, 2.8%
Santa Clara: 10.9, 3.2%
Santa Cruz: 12.2, 3.5%
Solano: 18.4, 5.3%
Sonoma: 13.8, 4.0%

San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties have benefitted the most from the adjustment for a high volume of testing; all three counties have adjusted rates below 11 but unadjusted, only San Francisco’s is below 15. In Marin County, the unadjusted rate of 11.4/100K is the lowest in the region but when the testing modifier is applied, its adjusted rate is tied with San Francisco.

San Mateo and Marin counties also reported the most substantial improvements from the week before, with adjusted case rates between 38% and 43% lower than the previous Tuesday. However, every county in the region reported an adjusted case rate at least 22% lower than the week before.

Counties in the Bay Area region make up three of the top 10 lowest adjusted case rates in California and six of the 14 lowest rates in the state, accompanied mostly by sparsely populated locales further north. Alpine, Trinity, Sierra, Del Norte, Plumas and Mariposa counties have advanced to the red or orange tiers, and Humboldt County also lowered its case rate below 10/100K.

Only 14 counties in the state report a positivity rate above 8%, but …read more

Source:: The Mercury News – Entertainment


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