The start-or-sit dilemma is part of managing a fantasy football team.
Having the foresight to start the wide receiver who goes for 100 yards and a touchdown in a matchup while sitting a receiver against a shutdown cornerback is one of the keys to victory.
For this version of a start-or-sit, I’m going to be listing all relevant fantasy football players each week and placing them into tiers.
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And to take some of the guesswork out of it, I’ll be leveraging thousands of slate simulations that are based in numberFire’s player projections with dynamic measures for variance, such as quarterback rushing, running back receiving, and receiver target depth.
The results will boil down to three tiers: players we should be confident about starting, players we can consider starting whenever we don’t have better alternatives, but who aren’t must-plays and players we should try to bench whenever we do have better alternatives.
These players are listed in order of frequency of hitting the stated threshold (i.e. QB12, RB24, WR24, and TE12 performances and higher on the list means more start-able).
The groupings reflect a 12-team, single-quarterback league with the following hypothetical in mind: if I had other viable options on my bench or the waiver-wire, should I start this player this week?
Players not listed should be presumed sit-worthy in a shallow or standard-sized league, and all fantasy points references and rankings reflect half-PPR scoring.
Start with confidence
These players are at least 50% likely to finish the week as a top-12 quarterback, according to the slate simulations.
Josh Allen at TEN (76%)
Patrick Mahomes at WSH (73%)
Lamar Jackson vs. LAC (68%)
Tom Brady at PHI (59%)
Dak Prescott at NE (58%)
Justin Herbert at BAL (55%)
Jalen Hurts vs. TB (55%)
Matthew Stafford at NYG (54%)
Kyler Murray at CLE (53%)
Consider if needed
This tier has odds between 35% and 49% to post a top-12 week.
Joe Burrow at DET (46%)
Aaron Rodgers at CHI (45%)
Trevor Lawrence vs. MIA (42%)
Ryan Tannehill vs. BUF (41%)
Taylor Heinicke vs. KC (39%)
Jacoby Brissett at JAC (39%)
Mac Jones vs. DAL (38%)
Daniel Jones vs. LA (37%)
Sam Darnold vs. MIN (35%)
Baker Mayfield vs. ARI (35%)
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Source:: The Denver Post – Sports
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